Crypto investors hoping that bitcoin’s coming halving event could trigger a rally of the coin’s price may be disappointed, according to Kaiko Research.
Bitcoin has been stuck under $30,000 for the past few weeks, but a past catalysts for its rally might not work this time, Kaiko Research said on Monday.
Bitcoin
BTCUSD,
halving refers to a process where a block reward is given to crypto miners after every 210,000 blocks are mined, or about every four years. The crypto has gone through three halvings in history, and the next one is expected to happen in April or May next year.
Historically, bitcoin has seen price appreciation take hold months after halvings, but the rallies have gradually diminished over the years, as the crypto market matures, according to the analysts at Kaiko.
“Before previous halvings, BTC saw significant volatility in the months leading up to the event. However, so far, there hasn’t been a notable increase in leverage or trade volumes, which may indicate that traders are not heavily positioning for the upcoming halving at this stage,” the analysts wrote.
Read: Bitcoin to reach $50,000 by year-end, but top $100,000 by end of 2024, says Standard Chartered strategist
Bitcoin has gained over 70% so far this year, but is still down almost 60% from its record high in 2021, according to CoinDesk data.
Meanwhile, halvings may not necessarily lead to any crypto’s price appreciation, noted the analysts.
Another cryptocurrency Litecoin
LTCUSD,
went through a halving event last week. However, different from many investors’ expectations, the coin fell over 10% since Aug. 2, when the halving was completed, according to CoinDesk data.
Litecoin performed in line with the broader crypto market or underperformed after its previous halvings in 2015 and 2019, analysts at Kaiko noted.
“This suggests that halvings [for Litecoin] have been ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ events rather than significant price catalysts,” noted the analysts.
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