Should Biden pardon Trump?

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Dear Rana, I’ve enjoyed the long period when I could largely ignore Donald Trump. But I guess those happy days are over.

For the next year or so, Trump is going to be in the headlines every week. There will be the election, the court cases, the stream of bizarre statements coming out of Mar-a-Lago — and a sense of foreboding about what this means for the US and for the world.

So what does it mean? In the best case, the court cases and the election proceed more or less, side by side. Amid all the sound and fury unleashed by Trump, the political and legal processes stay on track. The courts do their work. The electoral authorities do their work. And the American system emerges more or less unscathed, on the other side. At that point, we all shrug in relief. Somebody says “only in America” — and the business of government goes on.

I think that is certainly possible. But it’s not hard to think of what could go wrong. The legal cases against Trump will fuel the anger and political polarisation on which he feeds. If he keeps having to break off for appearances in court, his persecution narrative will gain in strength. 

The argument that Trump has martyred himself for the American people is ludicrously self-serving. But it is obviously working with his base. As things currently stand, the polls suggest that Trump will win the Republican nomination with ease.

Most pundits assume that it will be a different matter in the general election — and that enough floating voters will be repelled by Trump to hand the election to Biden. 

I’m afraid, I’m not so sure. The most recent opinion polls show that the race is neck and neck. As you know, given the inbuilt bias in the electoral college system, a 50:50 election is very likely to be won by the Republican candidate who is, in turn, very likely to be Donald Trump. 

Perhaps this latest Trump indictment will make a difference. But I don’t really see why it should. It is not as if members of the public are learning things about the former president that they didn’t basically already know. Most of his words and actions on or around January 6 2021 were already in the public domain.

There is a campaign ahead. It will be long. And there is plenty of scope for Biden to stumble, literally and metaphorically. 

Meanwhile, the Biden campaign will have to consider how it responds to the unfolding court cases against Trump — the pace of which, as I understand it, is largely down to the various presiding judges.

The safest course of action — legally and politically — is to stand above the fray and let the justice system work entirely independently. But I understand that there is already some talk in Democratic party circles that Biden might consider issuing a presidential pardon for Trump. One possible point in the campaign cycle for this to happen, would be after the Republican party convention. The idea is that a pardon would undercut Trump’s persecution narrative — and free America from the possibility of witnessing a former president go to jail.

I can understand those arguments. But it would be a high-stakes gamble. Many in the Democratic party would be outraged, arguing that Trump cannot be allowed to get away with an attempted coup. It is also unclear that angry Trump supporters would be mollified. 

So let us say that we get to the general election with Trump unpardoned — and still on trial, or even convicted. What if he wins? America would then be faced with the incredible prospect of Trump simultaneously being elected president — and convicted by the courts. Trump might then attempt to pardon himself. We would have a full-blown constitutional crisis.

And meanwhile, what would be happening on the streets? The Trump campaign’s rhetoric — likening the Biden administration to the Nazis or the Soviets — could be interpreted by some as a tacit invitation to armed resistance. Will anybody take up the invitation? Or will the sentences already handed down to those who rioted on Capitol Hill on January 6 persuade Trump supporters to tread carefully?

It seems incredible that we are having to discuss scenarios like this. But here we are. Rana, how much confidence do you have that the system can hold over the coming year?

Further reading

• I would recommend listening to — or reading the transcript of — my latest podcast with Peter Trubowitz, head of the Phelan US centre at the London School of Economics. He is a wise and witty commentator on many of the issues that I discuss above

• Also our colleague Simon Kuper has a super column comparing the democratic crises in Israel and the US — arguing that the desire for an ethno-state and its incompatibility with democracy — is the key in both cases.

• Finally, I enjoyed this long review of two new books — one about George Orwell and one about his wife. I wonder what Orwell would have made of Donald Trump?

Rana Foroohar responds

Gideon, it’s hard for me to know how to answer any of this. There’s no template for Trump, and certainly not for Trump 2. I am personally quite doubtful that Trump will win if indeed he’s able to run. I’ve always been rather sceptical of political polling, and I think that the media in the US has become so bifurcated that it’s tough to get a really clear and unbiased sense of what the exhausted middle in America really thinks.

We are told that Trump has a solid 30 per cent of the vote. The people who support him will probably do so no matter what. But it’s difficult for me to imagine what he could do to win over anyone who doesn’t already think that he should have a second term (or even that he shouldn’t go to jail). It’s possible that I’m being Panglossian, but I just don’t know what Trump uses to pull more votes to his side. Bidenomics is working. This White House has been even tougher on China than Trump was. There’s money flowing to red states. 

The chink in my argument is a Biden stumble. If the worst were to happen and the president were unable to run, here’s hoping that the party nominates commerce secretary Gina Raimondo and not the Veep. If Kamala Harris were the candidate, then yes, I really would start to worry.

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In response to “The ticking clock for America’s legacy admissions”:
“Prestigious universities achieved their reputations through many decades, or even centuries, of excellence in teaching and research. This in turn attracted high-quality students and generated high-quality alumni, who burnished the reputations of their alma matae through their achievements. However, these reputations are now being parlayed by students into social clubs designed to create and preserve privilege, and by faculty and administrators into donation and fee-generation machines . . . To preserve their reputations, Ivy League universities and other similar bodies (viz Oxbridge) must return their focus to the pursuit of excellence in their admission and education process, and remove legacy, donation, or any other criteria from consideration. No doubt this will reduce cash flow in the short term, but will be a reputational reinvestment that will pay off in the long term — for the university at least, if not for the individual students or faculty.” — Andrew Brown