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A top Federal Reserve official has backed more interest rate cuts, but called for the central bank to proceed “with care” as it tries to judge whether or not the US labour market is in the throes of a downturn.
Christopher Waller, a Fed governor and leading candidate to replace Jay Powell as Fed chair next year, gave a clear indication that he would vote for lower rates at the US central bank’s meetings in late October.
Waller said in New York on Thursday that he supported “continued easing of monetary policy from its current setting”.
The federal funds target range is now 4 to 4.25 per cent following September’s quarter-point cut.
The remarks echo comments by Powell earlier this week and add weight to investors’ predictions that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25 percentage points for the second consecutive meeting at its October 29 vote.
However, Waller — who was one of two rate-setters to support cuts as early as July — signalled that he would not back a jumbo 0.5 percentage point cut amid mixed signals over the health of the US economy.
The remarks could disappoint US President Donald Trump, who wants Powell’s replacement to make sharp cuts to US interest rates.
Trump, who is expected to make his pick for Fed chair later this year, has said he wants US borrowing costs to fall as low as 1 per cent — a level usually associated with economies in crisis.
While the jobs market has shown signs of weakening in recent months, Waller flagged that growth — powered by the boom in artificial intelligence-linked investment and strong consumption by the wealthiest Americans — remained strong.
“Something’s gotta give — either economic growth softens to match a soft labour market, or the labour market rebounds to match stronger economic growth,” Waller said. “Since we don’t know which way the data will break on this conflict, we need to move with care when adjusting the policy rate to ensure we don’t make a mistake that will be costly to correct.”
The remarks signal that Trump ally Stephen Miran, who joined the Fed shortly before its September vote, might find himself isolated again in voting for a half-point cut in borrowing costs.
Miran wants US interest rates to fall 1.25 percentage points by the end of the year — a far more aggressive pace of easing than anyone else on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee would like to see.
Waller said on Thursday that he would only support cuts on that scale if the labour market softened or weakened, and inflation remained in check.
“The labour market has been sending some clear warnings lately, and we should be ready to act if those warnings are validated by what we learn in the coming weeks and months,” he said.
Miran, who previously chaired Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, has doubled down on his push for lower rates in recent days, arguing that fresh trade tensions with China make it more urgent that the Fed takes action.
“Those [trade] risks make it even more incumbent upon monetary policymakers to start removing the risks on the economy from excessively high interest rates,” Miran told Fox News on Thursday.
But he conceded that the reduction in rates was likely to happen more gradually, given the views of other members of the committee.
“My view is that it should be 50 [basis points],” he told Fox, referring to the size of a potential cut at this month’s FOMC meeting. “However, I expect it to be an additional 25. And I think we are probably set up for three 25 basis-point cuts this year for a total of 75 basis points this year.”
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