The Apple update for September is a bearish one! Lower prices ahead.

On August 13th, Apple
AAPL
was recommended as a short sale. The stock has fallen by a scant amount since that time. The good news for short sellers is that the September, the weakest month for the stock since 1980, is here. The monthly histogram of expected return is below. The share price has been down 65% of the time in September.

Apple Monthly Histogram from 1980

The average month of September is graphed as a daily histogram below. Eighteen of the days in the month have had a negative expected return. The last ten days of the month have had the worst returns.

Apple Daily September Histogram

The technical picture is weak. Note that the stock is very overbought and that relative strength peaked on June 30^th. The $160-$162 level is a downside target. A break of this level could lead to much lower quotes. The average low has been in the October 3^rd to 7^th time span.

Daily Apple Price, Momentum, and Relative Strength