If you are not an investor you are a speculator. Investors try and gauge current and future value and buy that value if it’s cheap on the basis that time will bring the price into line with its value. Not many people like to take that route and for every disciple of Buffett or Graham there are ten denizens of the Robinhood merry-go-round looking for the next stock “horse race” to begin. The key to the latter path is speculation; many call it gambling and for many it is.
However, speculation is core to investing too, because most of the axioms of the markets are unproven or even if nigh on proven, not much followed or believed in. All variables are estimates and some of those estimates may as well be guesses, and guesses are speculations. If it wasn’t so, shares would have charts made up of smooth curves and vertical repricing, yet instead stock price charts are full of fibrillation like the trace on a seismic graph tracking the activity of a slumbering volcano.
Let’s face facts, you don’t want to read me predicting that over the next 100 years technological progress will slowly but surely bring the stock markets to ever increasing highs, so buy the index and go on your way. You want a spicy prediction.
So here is one.
November 5, 2024 (election day) is what will drive the U.S. markets from here on in. Normally there would likely be an element of that because historically new presidents are said to smash the market in their first two years so they can juice it into their reelection run. Happily the mind has only a vague memory for pain, thank goodness, but it certainly knows when times are hopping! So the U.S. election cycle has tended to have the initial two years deal some pain in the market, followed by two good years leading up to the election. You can certainly see that in the current cycle if you want to, so let’s bank that idea as a solid axiom.
As such this bull should continue.
And it has to be faced; Donald Trump absolutely terrifies the U.S. governmental system. Whether you support him or don’t, you can probably understand why. As such you can easily think they will collectively move heaven and earth to avoid his re-assent into the White House. While the internet might see this as a conspiracy, it doesn’t have to be, because with passive group consensus, actions simply emerge from the hive mind. You don’t have to have secret meetings for lots of people who make policy to understand that a strong market will help the democrats keep the White House and thus encourage them to support it, even if subconsciously.
As such the speculation is: The market will stay bullish and avoid meltdowns at least until November 2024.
So let’s look at a chart:
What strikes me with this simple extrapolation, is how ‘whiteboard friendly’ it is.
‘S&P 500 6,000 by the election fellas!’
Well I’m certainly not going to fight it, if the trend continues.
Now this speculation does depend on Trump’s progress. If he gets knocked out as a candidate, an eagerness to have a rampant bull market support the Dems will be significantly diminished.
Then of course there are always other emergencies that could put a bend in the trend. However, without these deus ex machina if you want to call the next 18 months of market action, this is a speculation worth adding to your calculations.
Most of us feel that current markets are highly “curated,” which is to say no longer “free.” As such the ugly hand of politics can only become a bigger and bigger factor. It’s sad but it’s foolish not to consider them, especially with an historic U.S. presidential election on the horizon.
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