Netflix ‘priced to perfection,’ says Wells Fargo

Netflix (NASDAQ:) is “priced to perfection,” according to Wells Fargo analysts, who added that the firm are buyers on weakness.

The analysts, who have an Overweight rating and a $500 price target on the stock, stated in their second-quarter preview that they believe investors would buy a pullback on the long-term outlook for Netflix in the event of short-term pressure on the print.

Wells Fargo also raised some estimates for the stock.

“We found that the highest correlation was between Apptopia MAUs as a predictor of NFLX’s EOP total subs. However, based on historical trends, the 3P MAU data tends to exceed the NFLX reported number by 100bps. When we adjust for this, we come up with 2Q net adds of 2.1mm, which is above Street’s 1.8mm,” wrote analysts.

“While we’re raising our Q2 net adds from 1.5mm to 2.1mm to stick to our correlation, we think buyside is looking for closer to 4mm+, and rev growth of 5%+ y/y (vs. us at 4%),” they added.

Wells Fargo also believes FX is turning into a tailwind for the company due to a weakening dollar.

“In Q2, FX turned into a tailwind for NFLX’s print, mainly driven by a weakening dollar against the euro and BP. In addition, LatAm and APAC went from y/y MSD headwinds to around neutral. We estimate NFLX’s y/y FX tailwind is now ~2% vs. constant currency, or roughly $180mm in positive translation. As a result, we are raising our 2Q rev estimate by ~$40mm to $8.3bn to account for the greater-than-expected benefit,” the analysts explained.