Commodities prices continue tumbling. It’s probably a key sign that the inflationary surge is ending. That’s likely good for everyone.
The data is incredibly heartening. Last month the Produce Price Index for All Commodities dropped by 7.1% versus a year ago, according to government data collated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That compares with a drop of 3.1% the month before.
This metric tracks prices of raw commodities such as oil, natural gas, metals such as copper and steel, lumber, farm products and foodstuffs. Energy ranks high in weighting.
Anyone who’s visited a gas pump lately would know that things are cooling off in the energy sector. Brent crude oil, which is used to make gasoline and diesel fuel, recently fetched $72.55 a barrel, down from approximately $110 a year ago. Likewise, the wholesale price of gasoline has dropped from $3.69 a gallon a year ago to $2.52 recently, according to data collated by TradingEconomics.
Given that energy is a driver of overall inflation, this pullback will likely help retail price increases moderate in the next few weeks. Diesel fuel is what most long-haul delivery trucks use, and when that cost falls, or at least stops rising, there’s a decent chance that inflation cools a bit.
There’s also good news from the farm sector, which shows some softness in key prices. Wheat prices have dropped to $6.84 a bushel recently down from $9.36 a year ago.
Likewise, wholesale coffee was fetching $1.69 a pound recently down considerably from $2.22 a year ago.
London-based economics consulting firm Capital Economics recently pointed out that Europe’s eurozone could be a major beneficiary of falling prices for farm products. “We expect eurozone food inflation to fall sharply over the coming year due to the large declines in agricultural and energy commodity prices,” the report says. The eurozone is the European Union’s single currency area.
However, it warns that because labor costs have risen sizably over the last year and a half, falling prices likely won’t last.
Still, falling inflation is exactly what Europe and America both need. Cooler inflation will hopefully get central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to pause their interest rate increases.
That would seem to make a lot of sense for Europe given that it’s largest economy Germany is shrinking. If the ECB doesn’t at least pause its rate hikes then its hard to see how Germany makes a vibrant recovery. Not only is that country Europe’a largest economy, but it is also considered the engine of growth for the bloc.
Its also true that Europe was hit hard by the disruption of commodities availability following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February last year. Europe had relied heavily on energy supplies from Russia, and agricultural products from both Russia and Ukraine. Obviously. the war sent prices for those items higher.
The irony here is that it was partly the surge in food and energy prices that may have tipped Germany into a recession. Now commodity inflation is in reverse it might seem sensible for the ECB to take a cautious approach and not raise rates too much more.
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