Shein, the fast-fashion e-commerce juggernaut, is poised to keep gobbling up market share in the U.S., according to
UBS.
That’s a reason to stay bearish on apparel stocks, wrote analyst Jay Sole on Monday.
UBS surveys roughly 4,000 women monthly about their shopping preferences. Just three years ago, only 0.6% of survey respondents said Shein was their go-to retailer for women’s clothes. By this June, that number had ticked up to 4%, a new peak, Sole wrote.
That suggests that not only does the company continue to build momentum with shoppers, but that the reopening of the U.S. economy following the pandemic hasn’t slowed its expansion even as other online retailers are growing more slowly.
“We believe SHEIN’s momentum to continue, and the company could take major market share from US Softlines companies,” Sole wrote in a note to clients. “SHEIN’s rise over the last 4 years is another reason we have a bearish view on Softlines stocks.”
Shein, pronounced “shee-in,” was founded in China and later moved its headquarters to Singapore. Over the past couple of years, the privately owned company has become a favorite among Gen-Z women, who flock to its website and app in search of trendy clothes that often sell for less than $10.
“The perception among some investors is SHEIN’s rise was just about offering goods online at lower prices than others were doing,” Sole wrote. “Our expert call explained that was only part of the story.”
While price was important to many Shein shoppers, they prioritized other factors, including owning the newest trends and styles, quality, and product offerings, he said.
An underappreciated aspect of Shein’s rise is how the company has forged a one-on-one connection with consumers through in-person marketing events and through a booming social media presence, Sole wrote. Per UBS’s data, Shein has more followers on TikTok than any other apparel retail brand, the third-most followers on Instagram, and the most Instagram “likes” in May compared with peers. Shein was also the most searched for apparel retailer in the U.S., with searches for the name growing 29% from a year earlier in May, according to a UBS analysis of Google data.
Barron’s recently argued that despite its growing popularity among U.S. shoppers few retailers or investors seriously considered Shein as a threat, and that ignoring the company’s growth could be a costly mistake. According to Bloomberg Second Measure, a data analytics firm, Shein accounted for roughly half of U.S. fast-fashion sales as of November 2022.
And indeed, the loyalty Shein shoppers have for the brand is significant. People who shopped at Shein spent roughly 60% more a month on clothing than the average U.S. female consumer, UBS found, even though the typical Shein customer skews younger and has slightly less income than the average U.S. shopper. The average income of a Shein shopper was $65,300, while the average shopper’s income was $66,200.
Many Shein shoppers also bought clothes at other brands and at bricks-and-mortar stores, but Sole believes that will change over time, as online shopping gets more ingrained into consumer habits and technology such as generative AI improves.
“We think this would be a bad outcome for many of SHEIN’s competitors, including not only Department Stores and Specialty Retailers, but also Off-Price retailers,” Sole wrote.
Other analysts agree. Neil Saunders, managing director and retail analyst at GlobalData, previously told Barron’s that Shein’s appeal among middle-class teenagers and young adults could pit the company against midtier legacy apparel retailers.
UBS is mostly bearish on the apparel sector, rating only 32% of the softlines stocks the bank covers at Buy. A little less than half—45%—are rated Neutral, while 22% have Sell ratings. Because Shein is a privately owned company, it doesn’t have a rating.
Write to Sabrina Escobar at sabrina.escobar@barrons.com
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