The hit Wegovy weight-loss drug is on track for sales of over $4 billion this year in the U.S. alone, despite its manufacturer Novo Nordisk struggling to keep up with demand.
Citi analyst Peter Verdult took a look at the latest trends on what’s called the GLP-1 class of drugs, used for diabetes and weight loss. Four-week total prescription growth was 80% in diabetes and an incredible 313% in obesity.
“While Memorial Day impacted last week’s data the impact from Novo reducing the supply of starter doses remains evident,” said Verdult. Novo Nordisk said it’s had to temporarily reduce supply as it brings on a second manufacturer to boost capacity.
Novo Nordisk’s U.S.-listed shares
NVO,
NOVO.B,
have climbed 19% this year.
For Wegovy, the lower-dose injectable used for weight loss, over 80% of the business comes from patients paying a $25 per month co-pay. Verdult said the current weekly run rate is suggesting sales of over $4 billion in just the U.S., which actually is a bit below consensus expectations of $4.2 billion. Citi’s global expectations for the drug, which former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he used for a time, are for sales of $5 billion.
He said a market opportunity for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly
LLY,
which has a similar drug tirzepatide that could get approved for weight loss this year, could be $40 billion.
Also read: The dark side of the weight-loss-drug craze: eating disorders, medication shortages, dangerous knockoffs
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