Equities gain as investors look for cooler inflation, Fed ‘pause’

By Sinéad Carew and Elizabeth Howcroft

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) – Global stocks gained ground, hitting their highest level in more than a year on Monday, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar were virtually unchanged ahead of key U.S. inflation readings and interest rate decisions later this week from the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks.

The dollar made little progress as investors opted for riskier assets, with the Fed widely expected on Wednesday not to hike rates for the first time since January 2022.

However, oil fell around 4% with futures closing at their lowest level since December 2021 on concerns about weak demand and rising global supplies, with rate uncertainty and inflation data added to worries.

Investors will be closely monitoring U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due to be released on Tuesday, and Producer Price Index data, due out Wednesday, for a reading of how well the Fed’s tightening cycle has managed to curb high inflation.

The benchmark closed at its highest level since April 2022 after last week rising 20% from its Oct. 12 finishing low, heralding the start of a new bull market, as defined by some market participants.

The equity index’s gains partly reflected expectations for a Fed tightening pause and for CPI and PPI to come in lower than the prior month, money managers and strategists said.

“Investors have been looking forward to a Fed pause in the rate hiking cycle since they started over a year ago. They’re trying to get out ahead of that,” said Burns McKinney, portfolio manager, NFJ Investment Group in Dallas.

In particular, McKinney saw out-performance on Monday of rate sensitive growth sectors such as technology, as bets that a low inflation readings would give the Fed the go-ahead to stop hiking rates, at least at this week’s meeting.

The rose 189.55 points, or 0.56%, to 34,066.33, the S&P 500 gained 40.07 points, or 0.93%, to 4,338.93.

The technology-heavy added 202.78 points, or 1.53%, to 13,461.92 in its biggest one-day percentage gain since May 26.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.66%, hitting its highest level since April 2022 in its third straight day of gains.

Traders are pricing in a roughly 75% chance of the Fed keeping rates steady, and a 25% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

While the Fed is expected to keep rates steady, surprise rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada last week have still kept investors alert to the idea of prolonged tightening cycles.

The European Central Bank will deliver its rate decision on Thursday with analysts expecting it to raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) and to signal that there is more ground to cover. But the Bank of Japan, which will announce its plan on Friday, and is expected to maintain its ultra-loose policy.

In currencies, the , which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.087%, with the euro up 0.08% to $1.0756.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.15% versus the greenback at 139.57 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2509, down 0.48% on the day.

“Though it’s more likely than not that the Fed will ‘skip’ a hike this month, it seems as if no one wants to be caught on the wrong side of the market should they choose to hike this month, keeping volatility low across most majors,” said Helen Given, FX trader, at Monex USA in Washington.

Given said a Fed hike “would likely be very dollar-positive as it would go against current market expectations.”

In U.S. Treasuries, benchmark 10-year notes were down 0.7 basis point to 3.738%, from 3.745% late on Friday. The 30-year bond was last down 0.8 basis point to yield 3.8786% while the 2-year note was last was down 2.3 basis points to yield 4.5813%.

As traders waited for central bank decisions and worried about weak Chinese demand and rising Russian supply, settled down 4.35% at $67.12 per barrel and Brent settled at $71.84, down 3.94% on the day.