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Trump threatens Iran’s power plants if strait not open. (0:17) GameStop earnings draw focus as Cohen touts Berkshire style. (1:17) California jury finds Elon Musk misled Twitter investors. (2:15)
The following is an abridged transcript:
It’s a light week for economic data and earnings, meaning sentiment will remain closely tied to the conflict with Iran — and what it means for oil and interest rates.
President Donald Trump said Saturday the U.S. would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened within 48 hours.
Prediction markets are signaling skepticism.
On Polymarket, traders assign just a 30% chance that traffic returns to normal by the end of April.
Kalshi contracts imply a more gradual reopening, with about a 39% probability by May 15, rising to 53% by June 1 and 59% by July 1.
The strait handles about 20% of global oil shipments.
WTI crude (CL1:COM) (USO) briefly moved back above $100/bbl in weekend trading on IG Index before easing. On the Hyperliquid blockchain, oil was trading around $98/bbl.
With oil putting upward pressure on inflation, expectations for Fed rate cuts this year have largely evaporated. Fed funds futures now indicate nearly a one-in-three chance that rates are higher at year-end.
On the earnings front, GameStop (GME) is likely the headline name among a light reporting slate.
There’s limited analyst coverage, so no formal consensus, but the holiday quarter update carries added weight after CEO Ryan Cohen floated ambitions to turn the retailer into a Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B)-style investment platform.
Cohen has discussed acquiring an undervalued, high-quality public consumer company run by what he calls a “sleepy” management team. Any detail on deal size, timing, financing or potential targets would move sentiment — though management hasn’t held an earnings call in more than two years.
Seeking Alpha analyst Bernard Zambonin said he expects the results to offer little in the way of core fundamentals. However, backing from high-profile investors like Michael Burry continues to support the stock’s momentum and reinforces its appeal to those who view GameStop less as a retailer and more as an investment vehicle.
Also on the calendar:
Chewy (CHWY), PDD (PDD) and Beyond Meat (BYND) report Wednesday, followed by Pony AI (PONY) on Thursday.
BYD (BYDDF) and Carnival (CCL) report Friday.
In the news this weekend, a California jury found that Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk defrauded Twitter investors through certain public statements about the company’s user metrics, ruling that his comments were materially false or misleading.
The case centered on Musk’s May 13 and May 17 tweets in 2022 — including one that said the deal was “temporarily on hold” pending confirmation that bots accounted for about 5% of users, as disclosed in SEC filings.
Lawyers for the plaintiffs said total damages could reach as much as $2.6B — a small fraction of Musk’s net worth.
And OpenAI (OPENAI) is planning a major hiring push.
According to the Financial Times, the company aims to nearly double its workforce to about 8,000 employees by the end of 2026, up from roughly 4,500 today, as it seeks to narrow the gap with Anthropic (ANTHRO).
Most of the hires would focus on product development, engineering, research and sales. OpenAI is also expanding its “technical ambassadorship” initiative — specialists who help enterprise clients make better use of its tools.
And for income investors, Broadcom (AVGO) goes ex-dividend on Monday, with a payout date of March 31.
Dividend heavyweight Altria (MO) and Seagate (STX) go ex-dividend on Wednesday. Altria pays on April 30, while Seagate pays out on March 25.
Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) goes ex-dividend on Friday, with an April 10 payout date.
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