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In January, New York City’s long-planned congestion pricing programme finally began collecting tolls. Following the lead of a handful of cities worldwide — London, Stockholm, Milan, Singapore — most of those driving inside a “central business district” in lower Manhattan are now charged a $9 fee.
Donald Trump is a longtime critic of the programme, which is the first of its kind in America, and which aims to cut emission-spouting traffic and raise billions to fund infrastructure. The administration is currently locked in a court battle with the city’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority over the toll’s legality.
Trump has not been alone in his scepticism. Phil Murphy, the Democratic governor of New Jersey, who counts many New York commuters among his constituents, has also challenged the programme in court. And, though polling has improved since it launched, public opinion was initially dubious enough to convince New York governor Kathy Hochul to delay implementation until after the presidential election.
Yet for all the controversy, most evidence suggests the policy has been extremely successful in reducing the traffic that plagues Manhattan and funding much-needed improvements to the public transport system, with relatively few negative consequences.
Several indicators suggest a sustained decrease of traffic into, within and around the congestion zone. MTA data shows a 13 per cent drop in vehicles entering the central business district in March against a historical average, plus faster movement through the bridges and tunnels that are often snarled with traffic. This is supported by data from analytics firm INRIX that also shows minimal changes on Manhattan bridges outside the zone.
On the funding side, the $500mn that the MTA anticipates raising this year from securities ahead of a big bond issue has provided investment for projects including signal upgrades, station elevators and a line extension. These will improve transport accessibility and efficiency in the long term.
A recent working paper from economists in collaboration with Google researchers drew similar conclusions from Google Maps Traffic Trends data. They noted speed increases for traffic into and inside the zone, without negative effects on local roads. Critics have voiced concern over “spillover effects” into neighbouring communities but the researchers found that most of these areas had benefited overall. Freer-flowing bridges and tunnels can also mean less interference with local traffic.
During the crucial peak hours, the data shows bus speeds were also faster inside the zone than over the same period last year, while those outside narrowly decreased. That suggests shorter response times for emergency vehicles inside the zone as well, which is supported by data from the New York City Fire Department.
Lawmakers were also concerned about local businesses. But analysis by the New York City Economic Development Corporation found an increase in pedestrian traffic within the zone, with 3.1 per cent more visitors in March 2025 than the same month in 2024. Some of this may be due to recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, but they note that 2024 saw just a 0.1 per cent increase from the year before.
Perhaps most importantly, injuries and fatalities from crashes for pedestrians and cyclists appear to have dropped dramatically inside the zone, according to data from non-profit group Chekpeds.
Any toll is going to raise questions about affordability for regular commuters — a central criticism from some lawmakers. In a January letter to Trump, Murphy called the toll “a disaster for working- and middle-class New Jersey commuters and residents who need or want to visit lower Manhattan”. Yet, even before the toll, just 11 per cent of commuters into the central business district travelled by car. Such travel, of course, has never been free: drivers spend money on petrol and car maintenance, and time sitting in Manhattan traffic.
But while debate over congestion pricing began as a fight over policy, under Trump it has morphed into an ideological battle. Growing evidence of the programme’s success may not matter in a presidency fundamentally opposed to investing in public transport at the expense of drivers. But as its benefits become clearer, public support has started to make the toll easier for local politicians to defend.
Hochul is a prime example. After publicly criticising the toll last year, she is now a fierce defender. Within hours of the latest legal salvo from the Department of Transportation, she had responded on social media: “The [toll] cameras are staying on.”
sam.learner@ft.com
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