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Canadians will vote on Monday to choose the leader they consider best able to navigate a new world of uncertainty created by the election of Donald Trump as US president.
The question of leadership, rather than party choice or domestic politics, has dominated the contest between Prime Minister Mark Carney and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, two men offering very different paths for Canada.
Carney has made the economic uncertainty created by Trump’s tariffs war a focus, while Poilievre has concentrated on housing prices, crime and the cost of living.
“My question to Canadians is simple: Is Pierre Poilievre the person you want sitting across the table from Donald Trump?” Carney said at a rally on Saturday in King City, Ontario.
Poilievre has promoted a “common sense” agenda by tying Carney to the previous Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau, who led Canada for nine years before resigning in January.
“We cannot afford a fourth Liberal term. We need a change,” Poilievre said at a rally in British Columbia on Saturday.
A once certain Conservative victory under Poilievre has shifted to an “unpredictable contest”, with Carney’s Liberals gaining significant momentum in recent months, according to David Coletto, chief executive of Abacus polling.
“Initially centred around affordability and a widespread desire for change, this campaign has evolved dramatically into a referendum on stability amid global uncertainty,” he said.
Trump’s tariffs and threat to annex Canada to make it the 51st US state sparked a wave of patriotism that gave the Liberal party a significant support boost from January.
Poilievre’s perceived likeness to Trump has been a liability as many voters are wary of “Maga-style” policies influencing Canada.
The final push by both sides was derailed by the death of 11 people in Vancouver, on Canada’s west coast, on Saturday night, after a man drove his car into a Filipino street festival. Police have ruled out terrorism. Carney temporarily suspended his campaign and headed to Vancouver for a meeting with the Filipino community.
The significance of this election, amplified by the stark contrast in leaders and the remarkable surge in the Liberal party’s popularity, is expected to result in high voter turnout.
Elections Canada, the government agency that oversees the vote, reported that a record 7.3mn Canadians had already voted, a 25 per cent increase from the previous election in 2021.
This leaves another 21mn registered voters to cast a ballot on Monday.
At the centre of the contest is a battle for marginal seats needed to secure the 172 districts required to form a majority government.
Both the 338Canada project and the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s poll tracker, an aggregate of opinion polls, show the Liberals comfortably winning.
Canada’s voting stations will be open for 12 hours from Monday morning with 343 electoral districts up for grabs. A result is expected late on Monday night.
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