Friedrich Merz’s high-stakes gamble to enlist the far right in pressuring the German government to tighten migration laws has upended the campaign three weeks before general elections.
The leader of the Christian Democrats, who is the frontrunner in the race to become Germany’s next chancellor, on Wednesday succeeded in passing a non-binding motion with the backing of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
It was the first time in the country’s postwar history that a parliamentary majority was achieved with the support of the far right.
Neither the ruling Social Democrats nor the Greens supported the motion that was aimed at strengthening border controls and accelerating deportations. But the outcome suggests Merz is in a position to pass a bill forcing the government’s hand, in a vote scheduled on Friday, the last day of the current legislature.
Merz’s gambit came in response to a fatal knife attack by an Afghan asylum seeker last week. By relying on AfD support he has stoked fears over the growing influence of the far right in Europe’s largest country.
Addressing a raucous parliament on Wednesday, Merz, who has ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, said he had no choice.
“The pictures that we may see of cheering AfD members will be unbearable,” he said to jeers and shouts from other MPs. “But faced with the choice of watching, powerless, as people in our country are threatened, injured and murdered, or doing right now what is indisputably necessary — I have made up my mind.”
The debate in Germany, where any association with the far right has long been taboo, has special resonance in Europe after mainstream parties last year struggled to contain resurgent nationalist forces.
France’s far-right Rassemblement National became the third largest parliamentary force in snap elections while in Austria, coalition talks are under way for a government under far-right leader Herbert Kickl — a first in the country’s postwar history.
“The big question is: is the German republican right ready to vote through laws with the far right?” Nils Schmid, a senior Social Democratic MP, told the Financial Times.
Until last week, Merz had focused his campaign on how to fix Germany’s stagnating economy. But when the Afghan national killed a two-year old boy and an adult in Aschaffenburg, the CDU leader changed tack, given that this had not been an isolated incident.
The murders came after a Saudi national rammed through a Christmas market in the eastern city of Magdeburg and a Syrian asylum seeker killed three people in August in the western town of Solingen.
The CDU motion calls for “permanent” border controls and a ban on all undocumented immigrants, including asylum seekers, from entering the country. It vows to immediately detain individuals who have been ordered to leave the country and increase deportations, including to Afghanistan and Syria.
The measures are backed by a majority of voters, according to surveys. Meanwhile, support for the AfD, which has advocated mass deportations of immigrants, has risen over the past years.
Polls suggest the party led by Alice Weidel could finish second with a record 20 per cent of the vote on February 23.
“Merz is trying to contain the AfD by appealing to these voters tempted by the AfD,” Armin Steinbach, professor at HEC Paris, said.
But Merz’s move could backfire, analysts say. He could both alienate centrist voters and normalise the AfD.
“There is not a single example in the recent past where mirroring far-right policies helped the mainstream parties,” said Peter Matuschek, head of Forsa, a pollster. The various legislative initiatives in the Bundestag only served to “revitalise the debate about Merz’s stance on co-operating with the AfD”, Matuschek added.
A Forsa survey on Wednesday suggested the CDU was losing ground, dropping three points to 28 per cent. Meanwhile the AfD and Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats advanced by two percentage points each.
“Will voters stick to these postwar principles about the far-right, or will the feeling of growing insecurity prevail?” Schmid said. “That is the big question of this election.”
AfD chief Weidel on Wednesday explained why her party would back Merz’s parliamentary initiatives despite his “infantile manoeuvres” to exclude it from future coalition talks.
“You copied your five point plan which you are presenting today, from us,” she said. “The so-called firewall is nothing more than an anti-democratic cartel agreement to exclude millions of voters.”
By antagonising the SPD and the Greens, Merz also risked complicating post-election talks with two potential coalition partners.
“He has undermined the trust by signalling he could find an alternative majority with the AfD if he does not get what he wants,” Schmid said. “He has shown his true colours and this is weakening him in future coalition talks.”
In parliament, Scholz, whose party has been lagging behind in third place in the polls with a predicted tally of 16 per cent, seized on the historic moment to attack Merz.
“No German chancellor would ever have done anything like that,” Scholz said. “For 75 years there was a clear consensus among all democrats in our parliament to refuse to join forces with the extreme right.”
“You gave your word on television that the CDU would not sell its soul. What are these words worth now?”
Green chancellor candidate Robert Habeck, who is currently serving as economy minister, accused Merz of falling into the AfD’s trap.
“The AfD is like a snake wrapping itself around the CDU’s neck. And I think it’s more of a viper, a venomous snake,” Habeck said. “The poison drips in slowly.”
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