By Helena Smolak
Allianz is scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter on Friday. Here is what you need to know.
NET PROFIT FORECAST: Europe’s largest insurer is expected to report net profit of 2.17 billion euros ($2.34 billion) in the last quarter of 2023, according to a consensus of analysts’ estimates provided by the company. That compares with a net profit of EUR2.01 billion in the same period of 2022, before a change in accounting standards for financial instruments and insurance contracts that was adopted on Jan. 1.
PROPERTY-CASUALTY COMBINED RATIO FORECAST: The German company is expected to report a combined ratio–a key measure of profitability in the insurance industry–at its property-casualty segment of 93.9% for the quarter, according to the consensus. Allianz reported a property-casualty combined ratio of 94.7% for the fourth quarter of 2022.
Allianz shares are up 8.5% up over the last three months, against a 5.5% gain in the Stoxx Europe 600 Insurance index in the same period.
WHAT TO WATCH
–NET OUTFLOWS: Analysts expect Allianz to report a quarterly operating profit of EUR790 million at its asset-management segment–which houses Pimco and Allianz Global Investors–and net outflows of EUR2 billion, according to the company-compiled consensus. “It’s too early to get excited about asset management inflows in [the fourth quarter] but these should accelerate in 2024,” Bank of America Global Research analysts said in a note. Berenberg analysts forecast a reversal of fortunes for Pimco in 2024, with expectations for net inflows that could offset fourth-quarter outflows.
–CASH RETURNS: Allianz is forecast to raise its dividend to EUR12.10 a share for 2023 from EUR11.40 a year earlier, according to the company-compiled consensus. On top of that, the company is expected buy back shares with a volume of EUR1.9 billion this year, according to consensus estimates provided by Visible Alpha. In May last year, Allianz started a buyback of up to EUR1.5 billion that was due to end by Dec. 31. The insurer could surprise on its buyback with the main risk of a postponed dividend increase until it holds a capital markets day in December, where it will set out its new three-year plan, Berenberg said.
Write to Helena Smolak at [email protected]
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