Boeing
has fallen on some hard times. Its 737 MAX jets have run into more problems while the
Airbus
A320 family of jets—the MAX’s competition—has extended its lead in the key single-aisle segment of the jet market.
Boeing can still lay claim to market dominance in twin-aisle, wide-body jets, though. How it has maintained the lead in that segment gives clues to how it can win back share in the 737-size jet market.
Over the past 15 years, Airbus has delivered just over 1,800 twin-aisle jets. Boeing has delivered almost 2,600, giving it about 58% market share. What’s more, Boeing has about 70% of the backlog for new twin-aisle jets, based on order figures reported by both companies. Things are getting better for Boeing in the wide-body market.
That’s the reverse of what’s going on in the single-aisle jet market. Airbus has accounted for about 57% of the narrow body deliveries over the past 15 years and has about 62% of the backlog.
There are several reasons the commercial jet market has shaken out this way. The biggest one, however, is bold product development decisions. Boeing’s wide-body leadership can be traced back to its decision to invest in an all-new plane: The 787 Dreamliner.
The 787 was an all-new design announced in 2004 and put in service in 2011, about 7½ years after the initial order. The plane was a couple of years late. That’s not all that unusual for a new plane. Things take time.
Airbus first announced plans for its A380 superjumbo jet in 1990. The A380 was first put in service in 2007. Airbus’ initial orders came in 2001.
The A380 was, essentially, supposed to be a better, bigger 747. Boeing didn’t react to the A380 with major 747 upgrades, though. It chose to develop the all-new 787 instead. It turned out to be a good decision. Boeing has delivered some 1,100 787 jets while Airbus delivered 251 A380 jets.
Airbus has also delivered 585 A350 jets over that span. The A350 program was announced in 2005—after the 787—and entered service in 2015. The A350 was the reaction to the Boeing 787.
Boeing led in wide-body jets, and it reaped the reward. Boeing reacted to the A320neo family of jets with the 737 MAX. “They panicked because of the early success of the A320neo, especially the sale to [
American Airlines
] at the Paris Airshow,” explains Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard.
American ordered 260 A320neo jets at the 2011 Paris Airshow, along with 200 Boeing 737s. That’s the order Stallard believes caused Boeing to sit up and take notice. The American order was the tip of the iceberg, though. The A320neo had an incredibly fast start. It was launched in December 2010 and accumulated 1,256 firm orders from 23 customers through December 2011. Airbus says that makes it the fastest-selling commercial jet ever.
The 737 MAX was launched in 2011.
The answer for Boeing now might be to take the initiative back and do an all-new plane to compete with the A320neo family of jets—particularly the largest version the A321neo. It will take billions of dollars and years to launch. The good news for Boeing is everything in commercial aerospace takes billions and years.
Better late than never.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
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