Media stocks were falling on Tuesday as the Writers Guild of America began its first strike in a decade-and-a-half. Analysts expect the Hollywood writers strike to affect television programming the most initially, while streaming-focused firms like
Netflix
may have an edge.
Shares of Comcast (ticker: CMCSA), which owns NBCUniversal, closed down 1.1% Tuesday,. Paramount Global stock (PARA) fell1.9%. Walt Disney shares (DIS) were down 1.6%. Netflix stock (NFLX) was down 2%. Warner Bros. Discovery shares (WBD) fell 4.5%. The
S&P 500
index was down 1.2%.
Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told Barron’s that the strike’s biggest impact will be on late night shows and soap operas, followed by network channels that are strict with their prime-time show release cadences in September.
“Streaming is far less affected, because there is no real regular cadence (see Westworld gap of more than a year, Game of Thrones the same, Succession the same) and because the streamers generally have a lot of content from outside the U.S.,” Pachter said.
He thinks Netflix will stack up well due to its large catalog, as well as its success with content produced outside the U.S., like 2021’s South Korean breakout series Squid Game.
Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett wrote in a Tuesday note that the strike mainly impacts television. He thinks films will only be marginally affected, for now.
“The most visible disruption will be the late night shows (Kimmel, Colbert, Fallon), which stop producing new shows, and switch to reruns. Daytime soap operas, which depend on a steady flow of writing, could also be quickly impacted,” he wrote. “Prime time or prime-time comedies and dramas should be able to wrap up seasons uninterrupted, with a backlog of episodes already written.”
The Writers Guild of America said it called the strike, which was effective at 12.01 a.m. Pacific time, after six weeks of negotiations with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers didn’t yield a contract. The AMPTP negotiated on behalf of Netflix,
Amazon,
Apple,
Disney, Discovery-Warner, NBCUniversal, Paramount and
Sony.
“From their refusal to guarantee any level of weekly employment in episodic television, to the creation of a ‘day rate’ in comedy variety, to their stonewalling on free work for screenwriters and on AI for all writers, they have closed the door on their labor force and opened the door to writing as an entirely freelance profession,” the WGA said in a statement.
The AMPTP said in a statement that the primary sticking points are mandatory staffing and duration of employment, which it said are “guild proposals that would require a company to staff a show with a certain number of writers for a specified period of time, whether needed or not.”
“The AMPTP member companies remain united in their desire to reach a deal that is mutually beneficial to writers and the health and longevity of the industry, and to avoid hardship to the thousands of employees who depend upon the industry for their livelihoods,” the statement added.
Crockett expects late-night reruns to lose some audience and ad dollars.
“But it’s hard to imagine that being overly material,” he wrote. “We also don’t expect the resolution of the impasse to shift economics so much that content stocks are impacted. However, if the strike drags on for months, it could be a headwind for entertainment stocks during that period. The last WGA strike started in 2007 and lasted for 100 days.”
Corrections & Amplifications:
The Writers Guild of America represents writers of scripted shows. A previous version of this article included a quote that incorrectly said it represents news broadcasts such as 60 Minutes.
Write to Connor Smith at connor.smith@barrons.com
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